Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty

The information on the projected climate changes over China is of great importance for preparing nation’s societal adaptiveness to future natural ecosystem. This study reports surface mean temperature during 2014–2100 and its four sub-regions (Northern China, Northwestern Southern Tibetan Plateau) by analyzing 20 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP126, SSP245 SSP585. multi-model ensemble (MMEM) CMIP6 has cold biases 1979–2014, with improved performance compared CMIP5 models. In contrast, simulate well in spatial climatology lower warming rates China. Relative 1986–2005, regionally averaged temperatures MMEM SSP245, SSP585 scenarios are increase 1.31 °C, 1.32 1.45 °C near-term (2021–2040), 1.75 2.06 2.66 mid-term (2041–2060), 1.08 2.97 5.62 long-term (2081–2100), respectively. accelerated occurs Plateau, suggesting that arid semi-arid regions particularly sensitive warming. We quantify uncertainty projections main sources model scenario largest bias. suggests observational constraints these will lead significant improvements climatic